Highest temperature in Seoul on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 30 June 2026, which historically falls within Seoul’s mild early-summer range of 19–28°C, with long-term averages pegging daytime highs near 26°C and only about seven rainy days in the month[1][2]. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market expects the temperature to stay well below any extreme threshold, consistent with June’s typical low heat and humidity before the monsoon intensifies[2].

Historically, Seoul’s peak June temperatures rarely exceed 30°C; the highest maximum recorded this month so far in 2026 was 34.0°C on 19 June, an outlier rather than a norm[9]. Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for any sudden heat spikes ahead of 30 June, as well as the onset timing of the monsoon season, which usually begins late June and could suppress temperatures[4]. Recent weather summaries note that while humidity rises toward month-end, showers remain short and predictable, rarely disrupting full days[2].

No major climate announcements are scheduled, but the resolution hinges entirely on Wunderground’s official daily high for Incheon Airport, accessible via their public history portal. On Polymarket, this contract trades in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, with settlement locked at 12:00 UTC on 30 June 2026. The 0% YES price reflects confidence that temperatures will not breach the implied extreme range, aligning with June’s established climatic profile[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.