Highest temperature in Seoul on June 29?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 29 June 2026 will determine the outcome of this Polymarket contract, which currently prices the YES option at 14% in USDC on the Polygon network. This market resolves to the specific Celsius range containing that peak reading, sourced directly from Wunderground’s historical daily data for the Incheon station. Traders holding conditional tokens are betting on whether the temperature will exceed the implied threshold, with settlement finalising at 12:00 UTC on the day itself.

Historical climate data frames this 14% probability as a plausible but low-confidence bet. June in Seoul typically sees daily highs between 19°C and 28°C, with the month’s warmest maximum recorded recently at 34.0°C on 19 June [1][7]. While late June marks the start of the monsoon season, bringing increased humidity and afternoon showers, the weather remains warm rather than extreme, similar to early summer conditions in southern Europe [1]. The current price suggests the market expects temperatures to stay within the standard range, making a significant spike above 30°C an outlier event.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for any sudden heat advisories or shifts in the monsoon front, as these directly impact peak daytime temperatures [4]. The forecast indicates mostly warm and sunny conditions with humid afternoons expected from 29 June through 7 July, which could suppress peak highs if cloud cover intensifies [5]. No specific weather announcements have been issued yet, but the dependency on clear skies for maximum heating remains the primary catalyst; a sudden increase in cloud density or rain before midday would likely invalidate the YES position.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.