Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 27 June 2026, which will settle the prediction market today. Polymarket prices this contract with a 0% YES probability, implying the crowd believes the temperature will not reach the specified threshold. On-chain, the market trades USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, where liquidity providers earn fees while traders speculate on temperature ranges.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability as rational. June in Seoul typically sees highs between 19°C and 28°C, with the average warmest day reaching just 28.06°C [1][7]. While Incheon recorded a peak of 34.0°C on 19 June 2026, such extremes are rare outliers before the monsoon season fully begins [8]. The current 27 June forecast shows Seoul hitting 32°C today, yet Incheon’s coastal location usually moderates temperatures compared to the city centre [2]. Without a sustained heatwave, exceeding the threshold remains statistically improbable.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for any sudden heat advisories or monsoon delays that could spike temperatures [5]. The monsoon season typically spans late June to mid-July, and any delay could bring unseasonably hot, dry conditions [3]. Recent weather reports confirm strong sunlight and high daytime temperatures across the region, but Incheon’s maritime influence often keeps peaks below 30°C [2]. Watch for official announcements regarding extreme heat warnings, as these are the primary catalysts that could shift the probability from 0%.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.