Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded on 24 June 2026 at the Incheon International Airport Station, which serves as the resolution source for this Polymarket contract. Today, the market prices a 0% probability for the “YES” outcome, implying traders believe the temperature will not fall within the specified range. This stark pricing reflects the seasonal norm for late June in Seoul, where daytime highs typically reach 28°C (82°F), with early mornings cooler and humidity rising as the monsoon season begins [1][3]. Historical data shows June in Seoul averages 19–28°C, with late June often hotter and more humid than early June, making extreme lows unlikely [1][2].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts and Wunderground’s daily updates for the Incheon station, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or rain could alter the peak temperature [6][9]. Recent travel advisories note that late June brings increased rainfall and humidity, which may suppress daytime highs slightly, but temperatures rarely dip below 22°C [3][10]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but the onset of the monsoon—typically late June to mid-July—remains the key catalyst influencing thermal conditions [1][4]. On-chain, the contract settles in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, with the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC on 24 June 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.