Highest temperature in Seoul on June 20?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **1% YES** in USDC on Polygon, which means traders are assigning only a sliver of probability to Incheon Intl Airport Station’s highest temperature landing in the market’s upper outcome band on 20 June. Because the market settles on the day’s *highest recorded* temperature from Wunderground history for RKSI, the key question is not whether Seoul feels warm, but whether the airport reaches an unusually hot daytime peak before the settlement window closes. June in Seoul is typically early summer, with daytime highs often around 19–28°C and increasing humidity as the month progresses, while late June can turn more rain-prone as the monsoon period approaches.[1][3]

That low price fits the broader historical pattern for June, when Seoul usually sits below midsummer extremes even if short hot spells appear. Forecast-style June guides put Seoul’s month ahead in the mid-70s to high-80s °F range, roughly low- to upper-30s °C at the top end in warmer stretches, but the more common reading is a milder early-summer profile rather than persistent heat.[4][8] For a conditional-token holder, the practical takeaway is that a single warm afternoon is enough to matter, but the market is still pricing a low chance that the airport’s maximum gets into the contract’s bullish range.

Traders should watch the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range updates for heat, cloud cover and showers, because the day’s maximum will be set by intraday conditions rather than the morning outlook.[5][9] The main catalysts are simple: any late-morning warming trend, a suppressing rain band, or a humidity spike that limits solar heating at the airport can swing the outcome band, while the Wunderground history page at settlement will decide the on-chain result for the conditional tokens.[2][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 20? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.