Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this contract at zero, implying traders assess no meaningful probability that Seoul's highest temperature on 17 June 2026 will fall into any single defined range. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather data for Incheon International Airport Station, the official measurement point, with resolution occurring at midday UTC on the settlement date itself.

Seoul's June temperatures historically cluster between 23–28°C for daily highs, though extremes have reached 32°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects two factors: the contract's specificity (pinpointing a single day eighteen months forward) and the absence of any meteorological signal suggesting June 2026 will deviate sharply from seasonal norms. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket show similar pricing for distant-future temperature bands when no anomalous pattern has emerged in seasonal forecasting models.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal outlooks as June 2026 approaches, particularly any advisories regarding Pacific typhoon activity or heat dome formation over East Asia. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through 2025–2026 could shift probabilities materially; the current neutral ENSO state provides no directional bias. Near-term catalysts include spring 2026 weather patterns and any official heat-wave warnings issued by South Korean authorities in May or early June, which would sharpen expectations for the settlement date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.