Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 13 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against historical Weather Underground data. The Polymarket contract currently prices this outcome at 0% YES across all temperature brackets, reflecting the settlement window's closure before any actual measurement occurs—a technical artifact rather than genuine uncertainty about whether the day will produce measurable heat.

Mid-June in Seoul typically sits within a narrow seasonal band. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows average highs of 26–28°C for this period, with extremes rarely exceeding 32°C or falling below 20°C. The 0% probability across all ranges suggests traders have not yet engaged with this contract, leaving it in its default state rather than reflecting genuine disagreement about plausible temperature outcomes. Comparable June days at Incheon have produced highs ranging from 19°C during cooler years to 31°C during warmer spells, establishing the practical bounds within which resolution will almost certainly fall.

The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes extended forecasts approximately ten days in advance, with updates available through their English-language portal and via Weather Underground's historical records. Traders should monitor late May and early June atmospheric patterns—particularly the arrival timing of the East Asian monsoon and any high-pressure systems tracking across the Korean Peninsula. El Niño or La Niña conditions active during early 2026 may influence seasonal temperature departures, though such signals remain uncertain at present. Once the settlement date passes, Weather Underground's historical archive will provide the definitive measurement used for contract resolution.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.