Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature reading at Incheon International Airport on 12 June 2026, measured in Celsius. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES, reflecting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or minimal trading volume establishing a floor. The resolution mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's historical weather database for that station, with traders required to verify the Celsius setting before settlement disputes arise.

Seoul's early summer climate in mid-June typically produces daily highs between 24°C and 28°C, though heat waves can push readings above 30°C. Historical precedent matters here: June 2022 saw Seoul reach 32.4°C, whilst June 2018 peaked at 31.1°C. The 0% probability suggests the market may be pricing in a narrow range that excludes typical early-summer conditions, or the contract structure itself has created settlement ambiguity that deters participation. Traders should cross-reference Wunderground's historical data for Incheon specifically, as airport readings often differ from central Seoul measurements.

The Korean Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal forecasts typically in May, which could shift expectations if an unusual pattern emerges. El Niño or La Niña conditions heading into June 2026 would influence whether the peninsula experiences above or below-average temperatures. Traders monitoring this contract should track any official heat-wave warnings issued by Korean authorities in the weeks preceding settlement, as these often correlate with measurable temperature spikes at major weather stations.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.