Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11?

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Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 11 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against historical records from Wunderground. The market currently prices at 0% YES across all temperature bands, reflecting the settlement window closing at midday UTC on that date—a constraint that eliminates any meaningful price discovery for an event six months forward. Traders holding conditional tokens on Polygon would need to monitor whether Wunderground's historical data feed updates reliably after the cutoff, since afternoon temperatures often peak between 14:00 and 16:00 local time in Seoul during June.

Historical June temperatures in Seoul cluster between 22°C and 28°C as daily highs, with occasional spikes above 30°C during heat waves. The 0% pricing suggests the market has not yet attracted liquidity or that traders view the resolution mechanism's early cutoff as problematic for capturing the actual daily maximum. South Korea's meteorological authority publishes daily forecasts and historical comparisons; the Korea Meteorological Administration released its 2025 seasonal outlook in December, noting that early summer patterns depend heavily on the North Pacific high-pressure system's positioning.

The critical catalyst remains the settlement timestamp itself. Since Incheon Airport Station data updates continuously throughout the day, any temperature recorded after 12:00 UTC (21:00 Seoul time) would fall outside the resolution window, effectively capping the measurable high. Traders should verify Wunderground's data lag and whether the site's historical archive reflects same-day updates or requires a 24-hour delay before finalising records.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.