Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10?

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Market context

The Polymarket contract currently prices the likelihood of Seoul recording its highest daily temperature within any given range on 10 June 2026 at zero, reflecting minimal trading activity rather than meteorological certainty. Settlement hinges on the maximum temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station, Seoul's official weather reference point, with Wunderground historical data as the binding source. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders have either not engaged with this market or view the outcome as sufficiently distributed across multiple temperature bands that no single range commands confidence.

Seoul's early June climate typically produces highs between 24–28°C, with occasional peaks above 30°C during heat waves. Historical records from the past decade show 10 June temperatures ranging from 19°C to 32°C depending on monsoon positioning and continental air mass influence. The 2020 reading of 28°C and 2019's 26°C represent more typical outcomes, though the 2018 peak of 32°C demonstrates how subtropical systems can drive sharper spikes. These precedents suggest the market's temperature bands should cluster around the 26–30°C range to capture the modal outcomes.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the East Asian weather pattern forecasts issued by the Korea Meteorological Administration in early June 2026, particularly any alerts regarding Changma (early monsoon) onset or high-pressure systems from the Pacific. Sea surface temperatures in the Yellow Sea and positioning of the North Pacific subtropical high will determine whether June 10 falls within a cooler, wetter phase or a warmer, drier interlude. Real-time forecast updates typically become reliable 7–10 days before the settlement date, creating a window where conditional token prices should adjust materially from their current flatness.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.