Highest temperature in Seoul on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul on 5 July 2026 will see its peak temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance of the “YES” outcome, implying the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range. On Polymarket, this contract trades on Polygon using USDC, where conditional tokens lock in the probability based on real-time Wunderground data feeds. The price reflects not just the abstract weather event but the on-chain mechanics that will resolve the bet once the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 5 July 2026.

Historically, early July in Seoul typically sees highs between 25°C and 30°C, with humidity pushing the “feels like” temperature above 34°C during midday heatwaves [1][3]. The monsoon season (Jangma) brings intense, short rain bursts rather than prolonged gloom, often clearing to leave steamy, hot conditions [1][4]. While 37.7°C was recorded in Seoul in early July 2024—the highest in 117 years—such extremes are rare and usually tied to specific heat domes [8]. The current 0% probability suggests traders expect temperatures to stay within the typical mid-to-high 20s range, not the outlier extremes.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for any sudden heat dome developments or monsoon shifts that could spike temperatures [6]. Recent news from Anadolu Ajansı highlights how South Korea has recorded unprecedented July temperatures, making early July a critical window for heat anomalies [8]. Additionally, the Sinchon Water Gun Festival in late July may influence local humidity and temperature patterns, though its impact on 5 July remains indirect [1]. Watch for real-time Wunderground updates at the Incheon station, as the market resolves solely on that data point.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.