Highest temperature in Seoul on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s July 3, 2026 high temperature is currently priced at 0% YES for hitting any specific bracket on Polymarket, reflecting a market consensus that no single outcome is favoured amid volatile monsoon conditions. On-chain, USDC trades on Polygon using conditional tokens, where the NO side dominates as traders estimate a fragmented field with six other temperature ranges sharing the remaining probability.

Historical data frames this 0% probability as rational: July in South Korea is the rainiest month, with daily highs averaging near 30°C but swinging wildly between 27°C under cloud cover and 33°C during heat domes. Recent records show Seoul hit 37.1°C on July 8, 2008, the highest July temperature since 1908, yet other days drop to 23°C, making a precise 29°C hit a minority call with only a one-in-three chance in comparable markets like the July 4 contract [1][7].

Traders must monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for passing fronts or heat dome strength, as these dictate whether temperatures stay near 27°C or surge past 30°C. The monsoon season (Jangma), lasting from late June to mid-July, brings concentrated heavy rainfalls that can abruptly cool the air, while clear skies post-rain may trigger rapid heating [2][4]. No announcements are pending, but real-time Wunderground data for Incheon Intl Airport will be the sole resolution source, so on-chain positions hinge entirely on these weather dependencies.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.