Highest temperature in Seoul on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces its peak summer heat today, with the Incheon International Airport station set to record the day’s highest temperature that will settle this weather contract. The market currently prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specified range, likely below the threshold that would trigger a payout.

Historically, Seoul’s July highs average 28°C, with typical peaks ranging between 26°C and 32°C depending on monsoon intensity and urban heat retention [1]. In recent years, extreme heatwaves have pushed temperatures above 35°C, but such events remain sporadic rather than routine. The 0% probability suggests traders view the specified range as either too high to be reached or misaligned with the station’s typical July ceiling, framing this as a low-conviction bet unless a sudden heat spike occurs.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground’s daily history page for the Incheon station, as settlement relies exclusively on its recorded maximum [1]. Key catalysts include the Korea Meteorological Administration’s heatwave advisories and any sudden shifts in the East Asian monsoon pattern, which can rapidly alter temperature trajectories. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 20 July 2026, on-chain positions in USDC on Polygon will resolve within hours after the official data is published, making timing and source verification critical for conditional token holders.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.