Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s peak temperature on 16 July 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport’s official weather station and resolved via Wunderground historical data, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC that day. The contract currently prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying the market believes the temperature will fall outside the specified range, though the exact range is not stated in the prompt.

Historically, July in South Korea is hot and humid, with daily average highs approaching 30°C and midday conditions feeling like over 34°C due to humidity levels above 80% [2]. This period sits in the middle of the monsoon season, making July the rainiest month in Korea, yet peak temperatures still frequently exceed 28°C, as seen in the July 6 market where 28°C was priced at 100% [1]. The 0% YES probability may reflect a narrow range definition or a specific threshold that recent July peaks have consistently surpassed.

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates for the Incheon station on 16 July, as resolution depends entirely on the highest recorded temperature for all times up to 12:00 UTC [3]. The market settles on-chain via the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, with USDC payouts instant and automatic, no KYC required [3]. No external announcements or schedules will alter the outcome; the sole dependency is the observed temperature at the official station, making live weather data the critical catalyst.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.