Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is expected to hit highs near 31–33°C on 13 July, with the Incheon Intl Airport Station likely recording the peak for the day. Yet on Polymarket, the contract for any temperature outcome above 30°C currently shows a 0% crowd-implied probability for the YES side, a stark disconnect from the market’s own leading outcomes: “32°C” sits at 42% and “33°C” at 32% across the conditional tokens [1]. This pricing anomaly suggests traders are either misreading the settlement logic or betting on a resolution failure, despite the contract’s clear USDC settlement on Polygon and the defined Wunderground resolution source [1].

Historically, early July in Seoul has seen extreme heat, including a record 37.7°C in 2018—the hottest early July in 117 years—and a 41.0°C all-time national record in Hongcheon in 2023 [2][4][5]. Nighttime tropical nights have also broken century-old records, with Seoul staying above 25°C for 22 consecutive hours in recent years [3]. These precedents frame the 0% YES probability as highly unusual, given that temperatures in the 32–33°C range are not just plausible but statistically probable for this date.

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground update for RKSI at 12:00Z on 13 July, which will determine settlement [1]. No official weather announcements are scheduled before then, but the North Pacific high-pressure system typically drives humid, hot conditions in summer, pushing Seoul toward 35°C on occasion [9]. With precipitation peaking in July, any sudden rain could suppress temperatures, but the current market pricing ignores even moderate heat scenarios entirely [10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.