Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces a critical heat check on 11 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station set to record the day’s peak temperature in degrees Celsius. On Polymarket, this weather contract trades on Polygon using USDC, where the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to any outcome exceeding the settlement threshold, implying traders expect a notably cool day despite the seasonal norm. The frontrunner outcome is 31°C at 37%, followed closely by 32°C at 33% and 30°C at 30%, reflecting a tight distribution centred on typical midsummer highs rather than extreme anomalies [1].

Historical data frames this probability as conservative; July in Seoul usually sees daily highs between 27°C and 31°C, rarely exceeding 33°C, though record-breaking heatwaves have occurred, such as when Seoul hit 37.7°C in early July 2018—the hottest early July in 117 years [4][5]. South Korea’s all-time record of 41.0°C was set in Hongcheon, not Seoul, suggesting that while extreme heat is possible, the city’s urban climate and coastal proximity to Incheon often moderate peaks [3]. The current 0% YES probability likely stems from traders weighing these moderating factors against recent volatility.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecast updates and real-time Wunderground data for the Incheon station, as cloud cover and wind patterns from the Yellow Sea can rapidly suppress temperatures [1]. A sudden shift in monsoon activity or an unexpected heat dome could alter the settlement, but no major weather announcements are scheduled for 11 July yet. The market’s conditional tokens will resolve automatically once Wunderground publishes the official high, locking in USDC payouts based on the verified Celsius reading.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.