Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The market currently prices all temperature bands at 0% on Polygon, suggesting either illiquidity or genuine uncertainty about which range will resolve as correct. Traders settling conditional tokens (YES/NO pairs) against USDC will need to identify which bracket captures the daily maximum before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes.

Seoul's August climate presents a fairly predictable envelope. Historical data from Incheon shows late-summer highs typically cluster between 28–32°C, with occasional excursions above 33°C during heat waves. The 2018 Korean heat wave pushed temperatures to 39°C in some areas, though Incheon itself rarely exceeds 35°C. August 2023 saw Incheon peak at around 31–32°C on most days. The current 0% pricing across all brackets suggests the market has yet to attract meaningful liquidity rather than reflecting genuine disagreement about Seoul's seasonal temperature patterns.

Traders should monitor South Korea's meteorological forecasts from late July onwards, particularly alerts from the Korea Meteorological Administration regarding heat wave conditions or tropical systems that might suppress temperatures. Any significant weather pattern shift—such as a typhoon approaching the peninsula or an unusually strong high-pressure system—would shift probability mass between the higher and lower temperature bands. Settlement hinges entirely on Weather Underground's Incheon station data, making source verification critical before final resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.