Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 18 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges measured in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% probability on Polygon, meaning traders are either awaiting settlement data or treating this as an unpriced contract. Resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when intraday peaks diverge from headline highs.

Seoul's August climate presents a narrow historical band. Over the past decade, mid-August highs at Incheon have ranged between 28–33°C, with extreme heat occasionally pushing toward 35°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 2018 heat wave saw temperatures exceed 34°C for sustained periods; conversely, cooler Augusts have settled around 27–29°C. This historical clustering suggests the crowd's current 0% reading reflects either missing liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which bracket the market creator has defined. Traders should examine the exact temperature thresholds specified in the market's resolution criteria, as a 1–2°C shift in the actual high can determine which bracket wins.

South Korea's meteorological agency typically issues extended forecasts by late July, and the Korea Meteorological Administration's August outlook will be the primary catalyst for repricing. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during July and early August could suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems anchored over the Korean Peninsula tend to drive peaks above 32°C. Any significant weather pattern shifts announced in the weeks preceding mid-August will likely trigger conditional token rebalancing on Polygon.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.