Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's summer heat peaks in early August, with the Incheon International Airport weather station—the official measurement point for this market—typically recording daily highs between 28–32°C during mid-August. The current 0% probability assigned to this contract reflects Polymarket's pricing mechanism across USDC-denominated conditional tokens on Polygon, where traders have evidently positioned against extreme heat on that specific date. Resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when automated systems and manual records occasionally diverge by tenths of a degree.

Historical August temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variation. The station recorded 33.7°C on 11 August 2023 and 31.2°C in 2022, whilst 2021 peaked at 29.8°C on that date. This range—roughly 30–34°C—establishes the plausible band for 2026, though extreme heat events do occur; South Korea experienced a 40.3°C reading at Seoul proper in 2018. The current zero-probability pricing suggests traders view the market's upper temperature brackets as sufficiently unlikely to warrant minimal risk allocation.

Monitoring the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any issued heat-wave warnings for early August 2026 will signal whether atmospheric conditions favour the higher ranges. Pacific typhoon activity patterns and the North Pacific High's positioning typically influence Korean summer temperatures; any tropical systems approaching the peninsula in early August could suppress daily highs through cloud cover and precipitation, reinforcing the current market lean towards moderate rather than extreme temperatures.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.