Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Incheon Airport temperature contract at **0% YES** right now, so the market is treating a qualifying high in the relevant Weather Underground daily observations table as effectively off the board. Settlement depends on the highest Celsius reading recorded at Incheon Intl Airport Station on 10 August 2026, with the daily observations table—not the day high/low summary—deciding any discrepancy, and the contract settles through Polymarket’s usual USDC-backed, Polygon-based conditional token mechanics.

The current read sits against a hot but not exceptional forecast. Korea Meteorological Administration guidance for the Seoul-Incheon area points to daytime highs of **33–35°C** today, while several private forecasts cluster around **33–34°C** for Seoul, with overcast or partly cloudy conditions and little rainfall risk.[12][3][15] Comparable August conditions in Seoul usually support highs around the low-30s Celsius, and today’s forecast is broadly in line with that seasonal pattern rather than a rare extreme.[17][18] That matters for traders because this market is not about a headline city forecast; it is about the specific airport station reading that Weather Underground logs during the observation window.

The main catalysts are the sequence of hourly observations and whether cloud cover, sea breeze, or any short-lived showers suppress the top printed value before the window closes.[13][12] KMA and other forecast providers both suggest persistent heat across the region, but the exact settlement number will be driven by the station’s observed peak, not the forecast high, so late-morning to mid-afternoon readings are the ones to watch most closely.[12][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.