Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 is expected to fall within the 64–65°F range, a conclusion the Polymarket crowd has already priced in with near-certainty. The contract, settled in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, currently shows 100% probability for that band, while the “YES” outcome for any other range sits at 0% [1]. This pricing reflects the market’s confidence that the day will not breach typical mid-July heat thresholds for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport station, the designated resolution source from Wunderground.

Historically, Seattle’s July highs at KSEA cluster between 60°F and 70°F, with 64–65°F representing a common median rather than an outlier. Comparable cases from recent summers show that temperatures rarely spike above 75°F unless a strong marine heatwave coincides with clear skies and low wind—conditions not forecast for mid-July 2026. The current 0% probability for lower or higher ranges aligns with this pattern, suggesting traders view the 64–65°F outcome as the statistical anchor [2].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily forecasts for the Puget Sound region, particularly any updates on marine layer strength or inland heat advection. A sudden shift in wind direction from the south or a breakdown in the coastal marine layer could act as a catalyst, though no such anomalies are flagged in the latest July 2026 forecast [2]. With settlement locked at 2026-07-16T12:00:00Z, on-chain positions remain static until the Wunderground record is published, making real-time weather bulletins the only meaningful dependency for adjusting exposure.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.