Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket prices this contract today with a frontrunner of 22°C at 98% probability, while 23°C sits at just 1%, leaving the "YES" outcome for 23°C effectively dead at 0% in the current crowd-implied probability.

Historical patterns frame this near-certainty of 22°C, as July is São Paulo’s coldest month, averaging a high of 72°F (22.2°C) and a low of 56°F (13.3°C)[3]. While July 2023 broke records as the hottest July in 174 years with an average of 16.92°C, extreme spikes remain rare in mid-year winter, and recent data shows temperatures hovering near 80.6°F (27°C) only in late June, not deep July[2][5].

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground daily feed for SBGR and any sudden heatwave announcements from Brazil’s national meteorology service, INMET, which recently flagged record heat indices in Rio de Janeiro that could influence regional patterns[4]. No scheduled catalysts currently threaten the 22°C consensus, but a sudden shift in the Atlantic subtropical ridge could alter the forecast, making the 23°C threshold a long-shot dependency rather than a probable outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.