Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s highest temperature on 12 July 2026 will be measured at the San Francisco International Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Fahrenheit bracket containing that peak reading. Today, Polymarket prices the YES outcome at 0% implied probability, reflecting a near-total consensus that the temperature will not hit the specific threshold required for that contract to resolve positively. This pricing sits against a backdrop of unusually cool summer conditions; SFO Airport has recorded its coldest first half of summer since 1965, with an average maximum temperature of just 67.6°F through 15 July [5]. Recent history supports this caution: on 9 July 2026, the airport’s high landed in the 66–67°F bracket, confirming a fragmented and muted heat profile for early July [1].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for the Bay Area, which currently projects a high of 77°F for 12 July, alongside AccuWeather’s 10-day outlook showing a 75°F peak for the same date [6][8]. While these forecasts suggest a modest rise from recent averages, they remain well below the heat-wave extremes seen in past years, such as the 87°F record set at SFO during a 2023 Bay Area heat wave [7]. The key dependency is whether marine layer cloud cover persists; any sudden breakdown could trigger a rapid temperature spike, though current models do not anticipate such a shift. On-chain mechanics remain straightforward: positions settle in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, with resolution sourced exclusively from Wunderground’s daily history for KSFO.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.