Highest temperature in Paris on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing the **37°C** and **38°C** outcomes as the main contenders, with **39°C** still a meaningful tail and **40°C** only a small chance, so the market is effectively trading a hot-day forecast rather than a broad summer average.[1] Because settlement is tied to the highest reading at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on the day and the contract runs on USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, users are not betting on a monthly climate pattern but on a single-day maximum that can shift with one strong afternoon spike.[1]

Paris in June usually sits well below the top buckets now being discussed, with average daily highs around the low to mid-20s Celsius and historical June highs clustering far lower than the 37°C-plus range implied here.[2][3] That is why a 0% YES price for the market’s target can still coexist with substantial volume in adjacent ranges: traders often separate the exact settlement band from the broader “very hot” scenario. The French record context also matters, because June heat waves in France have repeatedly pushed temperatures into the high 30s, showing that an outlier is plausible even if it is not the norm.[8]

The main catalysts are the day’s actual Paris observations through the afternoon and any late-breaking official heat guidance from Météo-France, which has recently warned of temperatures reaching record-high territory during a heat surge across France.[4] For a Polymarket user, the key dependency is whether the airport station prints a new high before the settlement window closes, not whether the city feels hot at noon. If forecasts hold in the high 30s, the market should stay concentrated around the 37°C–39°C bands; if cloud cover, wind or timing caps the peak, the lower range bins gain value quickly.[4][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on June 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.