Highest temperature in Paris on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget is forecast to hit afternoon maxima near 35–36 °C on 13 July 2026, yet the market prices a sub-32 °C outcome at just 1% YES, reflecting strong confidence in a hot day [1]. Historical extremes in France include 45.9 °C in southern France and 42.4 °C in Paris on 25 July 2019, showing the region can swing wildly but rarely stays cool in mid-July [2][3]. Recent June 2026 data for Île-de-France recorded a peak of 98.1 °F (36.7 °C) on 26 June, reinforcing that 30 °C+ is typical for this period [6].

Traders should monitor the daily 06:00 UTC Meteo France heatwave bulletins and the 12:00 UTC European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) updates, which often shift short-range forecasts by 1–2 °C within hours [10]. The settlement hinges on Wunderground’s recorded maximum for Paris-Le Bourget, so any station maintenance alerts or data gaps posted on the site’s history page could delay resolution [1]. On Polymarket, positions settle in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens; liquidity is thin on the 32 °C and below ranges, meaning a single large order could distort the 1% price before the 12:00 UTC cutoff.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.