Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026 settled at 71°F, well below the 80°F threshold that would trigger a YES outcome, explaining the current 0% crowd-implied probability for the higher range. This result aligns with historical June patterns where LaGuardia frequently sees highs in the low 70s to mid-80s, though extreme heatwaves can push temperatures into the 90s. For instance, a similar June 2025 event saw a peak of 89°F, while the 2024 record for late June reached 94°F, demonstrating the volatility traders must account for when assessing conditional token positions on Polygon.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts for cold front movements and thunderstorm activity, as these are the primary catalysts that suppress peak temperatures in the Northeast. A recent New York Times report from early June 2026 highlighted how a cold front brought scattered thunderstorms and cooler air to the region, dropping temperatures from the low 90s to the high 80s within a single weekend [3]. For USDC-based conditional tokens on Polymarket, the resolution depends entirely on the final daily value published by Weather Underground once the first data point for 27 June is available, meaning any revisions to the 26 June record are locked only after that timestamp. The settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC on 26 June 2026 ensures the market resolves based on the confirmed 71°F reading, leaving no room for late-stage volatility to alter the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.