Highest temperature in NYC on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket has this LaGuardia Airport temperature contract trading at **0% YES**, which means the market is treating a June 21 high in the target range as effectively priced out even though the settlement will be fixed by the highest Fahrenheit reading recorded on Wunderground for KLGA. On Polymarket, each YES/NO position is backed by USDC on Polygon and settles through conditional tokens, so the key question is not what New York felt like generally, but where the airport station’s official daily maximum lands when the day is closed out.

The historical frame points to a market that is usually driven by rare hot spikes rather than normal June warmth. June averages in New York sit well below the upper 90s or 100s, with one June 2026 climate monitor showing a highest maximum of 91°F on 11 June and an annual high to date of 93°F in mid-May, while AccuWeather’s June outlook had daily highs mostly in the mid-70s to upper-80s rather than extreme territory.[2][4][8] That makes a 0% price understandable if traders expect a more ordinary early-summer reading at LaGuardia, where airport conditions can still differ from broader city anecdotes.

The main catalysts to watch are the same ones that move any temperature market: National Weather Service heat alerts, updates to the local forecast, cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, and any thunderstorm line that cuts off afternoon heating. Recent reporting before the day itself pointed to a Northeast heat burst with New York likely in the low 90s and humidity making conditions feel stickier, but also noted the risk of a cold front and scattered storms reducing peak temperatures later in the weekend.[3] For a trader, the practical dependency is whether LaGuardia gets enough sustained sun and light wind before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, because a brief afternoon spike is what matters, not the day’s average.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 21? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.