Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 12 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several discrete ranges. The market currently prices all outcomes at 100% YES collectively, reflecting the certainty that some temperature will be recorded that day—a mathematical tautology that renders individual range tokens worthless until traders begin distinguishing between realistic outcomes. USDC settlement on Polygon will depend entirely on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, making this a binary exercise in forecasting rather than a speculative asset.

New York's June temperatures have historically clustered between 75°F and 88°F, with extreme highs occasionally breaching 90°F. The 30-year average high for mid-June sits around 79°F. Examining comparable years reveals that June 2021 saw a peak of 89°F on the 12th itself, whilst June 2019 reached 87°F. These precedents suggest traders should weight ranges in the 80–88°F band more heavily than outlier scenarios. Unusually warm or cool patterns in early June 2026 will signal which tail of the distribution becomes more probable.

The National Weather Service Northeast office publishes extended forecasts approximately ten days ahead, with meaningful refinement occurring five days before settlement. Traders monitoring late-season Atlantic hurricane activity and upper-level ridge positioning in early June will gain signal on whether heat domes or cooler maritime influences dominate. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 12 June, leaving only morning observations from LaGuardia to determine final resolution—a constraint that eliminates afternoon heat spikes from consideration.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 12? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.