Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

LaGuardia Airport will record its peak temperature on 11 June 2026, measured at the official National Weather Service station. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical data archive for that specific date, which aggregates hourly readings throughout the day. Currently priced at 0% on Polymarket, this contract reflects either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or minimal liquidity across all outcome brackets; traders holding USDC on Polygon can mint conditional tokens representing each temperature range, with only the winning bracket's tokens redeemable at settlement.

New York's June weather exhibits considerable variability year to year. Historical records show LaGuardia's June highs ranging from the low 70s Fahrenheit during cooler years to the mid-90s during heat waves, with a median around 80°F. The 2023 and 2024 summers saw elevated temperatures across the Northeast, though June itself typically remains milder than July and August. These patterns suggest the market's current zero probability reflects either an extremely narrow outcome band or technical pricing issues rather than meteorological implausibility.

The National Weather Service Northeast office publishes seasonal outlooks each month, with the June 2026 forecast expected in May. El Niño or La Niña conditions, tracked by NOAA, influence broader temperature patterns months in advance. Traders should monitor late-May climate forecasts and any Atlantic hurricane activity that could alter upper-level wind patterns. Real-time conditions on 11 June itself—high-pressure systems, frontal passages, or tropical moisture—will ultimately determine whether the day breaks historical norms.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 11? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.