Highest temperature in NYC on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is whether LaGuardia Airport in New York City will record a daytime maximum temperature exceeding the specific threshold defined for this contract on 7 July 2026. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 5% for a YES outcome, suggesting the market views such an extreme spike as highly unlikely given typical seasonal patterns.

Historical data frames this low probability with strong clarity. Long-term averages for New York City in July show daytime maximums hovering around 29°C (84°F), with moderate heat and humidity rather than record-breaking extremes [1]. While recent heat waves have pushed Central Park to 100°F and Newark to 103°F, these events are sporadic and not the norm for mid-July [6][9]. The 2013 record of 94°F at midnight at LaGuardia remains an outlier, and the typical daily high rarely breaches the 90°F mark unless a specific, intense heat dome is present [2].

Traders should monitor the immediate National Weather Service forecasts and any active flood watch announcements, as heavy rain systems often suppress daytime temperatures significantly. Recent NWS guidance points favour the 72–75°F bracket for the area, with a point high near 73°F, which aligns with the market's scepticism of a high-temperature spike [8]. The dependency on clear skies is critical; without a sustained heat dome, the 5% probability appears well-calibrated to the prevailing meteorological conditions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.