Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit, is the real-world event this contract tracks. Polymarket prices this contract today at a 0% probability for the "YES" outcome, implying the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range being traded. This stark pricing reflects the on-chain mechanics of conditional tokens on the Polygon network, where USDC liquidity is allocated based on the collective assessment of weather data rather than abstract speculation. Settlement occurs automatically in USDC via the UMA Optimistic Oracle once a proposer submits the outcome and the two-hour challenge window closes without dispute.

Historical data frames how to read this current probability, as LaGuardia has recently experienced extreme peaks. On 3 July 2026, the airport recorded a peak of 104°F, surpassing its 1966 daily high of 101°F[1]. Furthermore, the station hit 104°F on 2 July 2026, marking one of the highest temperatures in its recorded history alongside the 107°F record from 1966[9]. A warm midnight record of 94°F was also set recently at the same location, breaking the 2013 benchmark of 93°F[2]. These comparable cases suggest that while extreme heat is possible, the 0% pricing implies the specific range offered is too narrow or misaligned with the likely actual peak.

Traders should watch the continuation of the dangerous heatwave intensifying across New York City and the East Coast, which brings scorching temperatures and high humidity through 5–6 July 2026[3]. Weather experts indicate this heat wave will likely persist for another day or two, with temperatures expected to drop slightly only by 7 July[3]. The dependency on warm overnight lows, which stayed above 85°F on 6 July, limits cooling relief and sustains oppressive conditions[3]. Monitoring the official Wunderground data for the LaGuardia Airport Station will be critical, as the resolution source relies on the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.