Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is a severe, multi-day heat wave currently gripping the eastern United States, with New York City forecast to approach 100 degrees Fahrenheit on 5 July 2026, creating extreme heat indices near 105[1][2]. On Polymarket, this contract is priced at 0% YES today, implying the crowd believes the temperature will not exceed the highest threshold required for a "YES" resolution, despite the active heat emergency setting new records across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast[1].

Historical precedents frame this low probability sharply; LaGuardia Airport recently recorded 102 degrees, breaking its daily high record, and hit 94 degrees at midnight, shattering the previous midnight benchmark set in 2013[4]. Long-term averages for July in New York City suggest daytime maximums of only 29°C (roughly 84°F), yet the current anomaly is pushing temperatures well above these norms, with some forecasts predicting highs near 98°F or 37°C on both 4 and 5 July[2][3].

Traders must monitor the immediate shift of this heat wave southward on Saturday, as Washington DC is predicted to maintain a 102-degree high, potentially marking the hottest Independence Day in the city's history, while Philadelphia and NYC approach 100 degrees[1]. The critical catalyst is the persistence of high humidity levels, which will make the air feel thick and sticky, elevating the heat index to 105° or hotter during peak afternoon hours between noon and 5:00 p.m.[2]. Recent reports from the CDC highlight extremely high rates of heat-related emergency room visits, confirming the severity of this event as millions prepare for outdoor celebrations[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.