Highest temperature in NYC on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at New York’s LaGuardia Airport on 4 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability of a “YES” in the highest range sitting at 0%. On Polymarket, this contract is priced using USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens reflect the market’s near-total dismissal of extreme heat for that specific date. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 4 July 2026, and the resolution source is Wunderground’s official daily high for LaGuardia, accessible via their history portal.

Historically, LaGuardia has experienced scorching July highs, including a record 107°F on 3 July 1966, and more recently, a midnight temperature of 94°F that marked New York’s warmest midnight ever[2][8]. July 2026 forecasts from AccuWeather suggest daily highs between 81°F and 99°F, with overnight lows from 68°F to 83°F, indicating that while heat is expected, the extreme range remains statistically unlikely[4]. These comparable cases frame the current 0% probability as a rational assessment rather than an outlier.

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from the National Weather Service at LaGuardia, especially any sudden spikes in temperature during the holiday period[1]. Fox Weather has recently highlighted record-breaking heat events in the region, including a 104°F reading that surpassed the old record of 101°F, underscoring the volatility of summer temperatures in NYC[5]. Any official announcements of heat advisories or shifts in forecast models from AccuWeather or Wunderground could serve as catalysts for probability shifts, though none are currently anticipated for 4 July.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.