Highest temperature in NYC on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 27 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several discrete ranges, with Polymarket currently pricing all outcomes at 0% YES across the board. This reflects the market's inability to settle the contract until the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC that day, after which Wunderground's historical data for KLGA becomes the definitive source. The conditional token structure means traders are effectively locking capital into a contract that cannot resolve until real-world temperature data is published and verified.

New York's July temperatures have historically clustered between 78°F and 88°F at LaGuardia, with extreme heat events pushing into the low 90s roughly once per decade. The 2019 heat wave saw peaks near 92°F, whilst the past five years have shown more moderate patterns, with most July highs settling in the 82–86°F range. These patterns establish a baseline for evaluating which temperature bands represent statistical outliers versus routine summer conditions.

The National Weather Service's extended forecast for late July 2026 remains the primary catalyst traders should monitor, though such forecasts typically gain reliability only within 10 days of the target date. Atlantic tropical activity, upper-level ridge positioning, and moisture transport from the Gulf Stream all influence whether New York experiences typical summer heat or anomalous conditions. Current climate patterns and any official heat advisories issued by NWS in the weeks preceding 27 July will provide the most actionable signals for adjusting position sizing on the conditional tokens.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.