Highest temperature in NYC on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia’s highest temperature on 23 July is trading as an outright **80-81°F** finish on Polymarket, with that band priced at 72% and **82-83°F** the next most likely outcome at 19%.[1] The contract settles on the highest reading recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station and pays in USDC via Polygon conditional tokens, so the live market price reflects where traders think the day’s peak will land rather than a general view of New York heat.[1]

A 0% YES crowd price is usually a sign that the market has already assigned almost all expected value to the most likely temperature band, rather than that the event is impossible. For this kind of weather market, the useful comparison is not with “hot or not”, but with nearby historical-style outcomes: a one- or two-degree move can be enough to shift settlement into a different band if the afternoon peak is marginal, especially at an airport station where coastal airflow, cloud cover, and timing of the maximum all matter. Polymarket’s own ladder shows the distribution still clustered tightly around the low 80s, which is consistent with traders treating the outcome as a narrow range decision rather than a wide-open forecast.[1]

The main catalysts are the day’s actual observed temperature path and whether any late-afternoon warming pushes the airport reading above the current band before the settlement cut-off. Traders watch the New York forecast cycle, hourly updates, and any last-minute thunderstorm or marine-layer changes that could cap the high; a recent report noted that NYC had been dealing with a severe heatwave and even a 100-degree forecast earlier in the month, underlining how quickly local conditions can swing from extreme heat to a softer daytime peak.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 23? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.