Highest temperature in NYC on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 2 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability of a "YES" resolution sitting at 0%. This contract, priced on Polymarket today, reflects the market’s assessment that the temperature will fall outside the specific range being bet on, despite the on-chain mechanics allowing USDC trades on the Polygon network via conditional tokens.

Historically, early July in New York City has seen extreme heat, with LaGuardia reaching 101°F in 1966 and Newark hitting 103°F in 1901, while recent forecasts for July 2–3, 2026, predict temperatures climbing into the low to mid-90s with high humidity [1][5][6]. The current 0% probability suggests traders believe the heat will not breach the upper threshold of the range, even though warm nights and thunderstorms are expected to create unstable conditions [1][3].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports and any sudden announcements regarding storm intensity, as heavy downpours and gusty winds could temporarily suppress peak temperatures [1][4]. Recent weather alerts highlight that heat and storms will peak during these two days, with humidity making the air feel even hotter, which could influence whether the temperature reaches the critical range [1][8]. The settlement window ends on 2026-07-02 at 12:00 UTC, so real-time updates from Wunderground will be decisive.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.