Highest temperature in NYC on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

A strong summer heatwave is gripping the Northeastern United States on 15 July 2026, with New York City facing its hottest weather of the season so far. Forecast models indicate daytime highs will reach the mid to upper 90s Fahrenheit, specifically targeting 95°F in NYC, while humidity remains elevated with dew points above 70°[2]. The settlement window for this weather contract closes at 12:00 UTC tomorrow, locking in the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station as verified by Wunderground.

Historically, July 2026 has already shattered long-standing records across the East Coast, with NYC, DC, and Atlantic City simultaneously breaking temperatures that had stood for up to 154 years during a recent holiday weekend[4]. This context explains why the crowd-implied probability for a "YES" outcome on extreme heat is currently priced at 0%, as the market instead concentrates on specific Fahrenheit ranges like 98–99°F at 41% and 96–97°F at 20%[1]. The on-chain mechanics on Polygon, settled in USDC via conditional tokens, reflect this consensus that temperatures will be high but may not breach the absolute upper threshold implied by the zero-probability outcome.

Traders should monitor the weakening of the current high-pressure system after 16 July, as a cold front moving in from the west is expected to bring cooler air and drop temperatures back into the 80s by 17 July[2]. The critical dependency is the precise timing of this front relative to the LaGuardia station’s daily peak, which typically occurs in the afternoon. With nights staying above 75°F and offering little relief, the lack of overnight cooling is a key factor sustaining the day’s heat intensity before the anticipated drop[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.