Highest temperature in NYC on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s highest temperature on 14 July 2026, measured at LaGuardia Airport, is the real-world event this contract settles on. Today, Polymarket prices the “YES” outcome at 0%, a stark signal that traders see no chance of the temperature exceeding the implied threshold, even as the market’s frontrunner for the actual reading sits at 96–97°F with 54% probability [1]. This divergence reflects how conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, capture crowd sentiment on specific ranges rather than absolute extremes; the 0% price suggests the threshold in question is likely set well above 97°F, making it effectively unreachable under current forecasts.

Historical July heat in NYC frames this probability. The July 2026 heatwave already shattered records across the East Coast, with NYC, DC, and Atlantic City breaking 14-to-154-year highs simultaneously during a holiday weekend [3]. Yet even that extreme event did not push LaGuardia past 98°F, and the current market’s 96–97°F frontrunner aligns with typical peak July readings for the station [1]. Traders should watch the National Weather Service’s daily LaGuardia archives for any anomalies, as deviations from the 96–97°F range would be the only catalyst to shift the 0% price [2].

No new announcements or schedules are pending that would alter the settlement, as the resolution source is fixed to Wunderground’s daily high for KLGA. The market’s 0% YES price is a mechanical outcome of the range definition, not a forecast of cold weather. On-chain, this means USDC liquidity remains locked in the “NO” pool, with Polygon conditional tokens reflecting a near-certain resolution below the threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.