Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is baking under an intense heatwave on 12 July 2026, with forecasts pushing afternoon highs near 94°F and heat indices climbing to 105°F due to oppressive humidity near 75%[1]. Despite this scorching real-world event, the Polymarket contract for the highest temperature at LaGuardia Airport resolves to a specific range that currently carries a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the defined bracket despite the extreme conditions[1].

Historical data frames this pricing anomaly, as July 2026 has already seen NYC hit 100°F on 2 July during the 2026 North American heat wave, tying a daily record[5]. LaGuardia previously recorded 102°F on a Thursday in a separate record-setting event, breaking the 93°F mark set in 2013[6]. The current 0% probability likely reflects a mismatch between the market’s specific temperature range and the forecasted 94°F peak, rather than a lack of heat, as traders weigh the likelihood of the temperature landing just below the upper threshold of the contract’s resolution range[1].

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground daily history for KLGA as the settlement clock ticks toward 2026-07-12T12:00:00Z, watching for any late-day spikes that could breach the 94°F forecast[1]. The resolution depends entirely on the highest recorded temperature at LaGuardia, not Central Park’s 100°F reading, creating a critical dependency on station-specific data[7]. With USDC liquidity locked on Polygon via conditional tokens, the market remains sensitive to the final hourly update, where even a one-degree variance could shift the outcome from NO to YES if the range includes 95°F or higher.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.