Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event in plain language is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. Polymarket prices this contract today with the 92–93°F range at 90% probability, while the 94–95°F range sits at 9%, and the 0% YES price you see for the lowest bracket reflects near-zero market belief in a cold outlier. On-chain, shares trade in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, where liquidity flows as traders adjust positions based on incoming weather data and model updates.

Historical patterns frame how to read the current probability: LaGuardia’s July highs typically hover around 84°F, rarely exceeding 93°F, with the record high of 107°F set on 3 July 1966 during a severe heatwave [7][8]. The average high for July is 85°F, and daily highs seldom fall below 75°F, making the 92–93°F range a statistically tight but plausible outcome given recent summer trends [8]. The 0% YES for lower brackets aligns with decades of data showing July 1 is consistently warm, not cool.

Traders should watch the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports and Wunderground’s real-time updates for KLGA, as these are the official resolution sources [3][6]. A recent heatwave forecast from AccuWeather predicts daily highs between 81°F and 99°F for July 2026, suggesting the market’s 92–93°F consensus is well-calibrated [4]. Any sudden shift in the 5:28 AM sunrise time or overnight lows between 68°F and 83°F could alter the day’s peak, so monitor the 12:00 UTC settlement window closely for final data confirmation [4][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.