Highest temperature in NYC on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract trading as a temperature-range bet on LaGuardia, with shares settled in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, and the crowd currently assigns **0%** to the **YES** side. In practice, that means the market is pricing in no meaningful chance that the day’s reported high lands in the relevant outcome bucket, even though the settlement source is a single station reading from Wunderground rather than a citywide average.[2][3]

For context, New York summer highs usually cluster in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, which is consistent with the market’s current distribution across the middle ranges rather than the extremes.[1][11] Recent NYC heat has shown that LaGuardia can run hotter than Central Park during strong warm spells, with the airport reaching 104°F in early July and the city seeing 100°F in the same event.[19][18] That matters because airport sites often respond quickly to southerly flow, humidity, and urban heat, so a late-day spike can shift the final bracket even if the morning looks tame.[19]

A trader watching this market should focus on the same-day forecast path, any heat advisories, and whether cloud cover or thunderstorms cap the afternoon maximum before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes. The practical dependency is simple: the Wunderground LaGuardia history page will be the arbiter, so only the station’s recorded daily high matters, not broader NYC weather headlines.[2] Recent reporting around the city’s July heat wave underlines how quickly airport temperatures can jump when conditions align, which is the main live catalyst for range markets of this kind.[19][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on August 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.