Highest temperature in NYC on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The contract settles on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 19 August 2026, measured in the Weather Underground Daily Observations table rather than the summary high-low figures. Polymarket currently prices this at 0% YES across all temperature bands, reflecting the market's inability to price an event two years hence with meaningful conviction. The conditional token structure on Polygon means traders are effectively betting USDC against a range outcome that will resolve to a single winner once the National Weather Service data flows through Wunderground's system on settlement day.

New York City's August temperatures have historically clustered between 75°F and 88°F for daily highs, though heat waves regularly push readings into the low 90s. The city experienced a peak of 99°F in August 2021 and 96°F in August 2022, establishing that extreme outcomes remain within historical precedent. LaGuardia's maritime location moderates temperatures relative to inland areas, typically running 2–3 degrees cooler than Manhattan or the outer boroughs. Current meteorological consensus suggests no structural shift in summer temperature patterns for 2026, though climate drift could incrementally raise baseline expectations.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Atlantic hurricane activity in late summer 2026, as tropical systems can either suppress temperatures through cloud cover or elevate them via warm air advection depending on track and timing. The National Weather Service's seasonal outlooks, published in May and June 2026, will provide the first formal guidance on whether August conditions favour above or below-normal heat. Any significant El Niño or La Niña development would also influence continental weather patterns by mid-2026.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on August 19? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.