Highest temperature in NYC on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded in the Daily Observations table at LaGuardia Airport Station will determine this market's settlement. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current pricing across all temperature bands, suggesting traders are either awaiting more information or treating this as a genuine uncertainty event rather than a certainty. On Polygon, the conditional tokens representing each temperature range remain illiquid, with USDC settlement standing ready once the Weather Underground data is finalised at the resolution window's close on 12:00 UTC that day.

Historical August temperatures at LaGuardia show considerable year-to-year variation. The station recorded 99°F on 17 August 2023 and 96°F on the same date in 2022, whilst 2021 saw 88°F. The 30-year average high for mid-August in New York sits around 82–84°F, though heat waves regularly push readings into the low-to-mid 90s. Traders should note that Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—the specified resolution source—occasionally differs from the Day High & Low summary, a distinction that has triggered disputes in similar weather contracts.

The National Weather Service's extended forecast for August 2026 will not be available until late July, making near-term catalyst identification difficult. Traders monitoring this contract should track Atlantic hurricane activity and upper-atmosphere pressure patterns in early August, as tropical systems or heat domes can sharply alter daily maxima. The specific reliance on LaGuardia's station data (rather than Central Park or other NYC monitoring points) means localised conditions at the airport site carry outsized importance for settlement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.