Highest temperature in Munich on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this Munich Airport Station temperature contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is effectively saying a reading in the specified range is not expected by the settlement deadline. On Polymarket, that view is expressed with **USDC** on **Polygon**, where traders buy and sell conditional tokens tied to the Wunderground resolution source rather than the weather itself.

That pricing is notable because Munich’s August climate is warm but usually not extreme. Historical summaries put the city’s average August high around **24–25°C**, with record August highs reaching **37–38°C** in past years, so a high-end outcome is possible even if it is uncommon. For the specific date in question, one climate reference shows an average high of **25.4°C** and a record high of **35.3°C** for 6 August, which frames the market as a question about whether the day clears the upper end of the usual summer range.[1][3][14]

For traders, the main catalysts are the live forecast into the afternoon, the actual midday-to-evening warming in Munich, and any rain or cloud cover that caps the maximum temperature before the **12:00 UTC** settlement window closes. Munich Airport observations can move quickly with sun and convection, so the key is not the overnight low but the day’s peak reading at the station; recent August history also shows large year-to-year swings, including hot spells above **30°C** and cooler, wetter summers.[2][13][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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