Highest temperature in Munich on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 August 2026, Munich Airport Station will record a daily high temperature in Celsius, and this market resolves to whichever range bracket contains that single highest reading from the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground. The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity; USDC liquidity on Polygon remains thin, suggesting few traders have positioned conditional tokens across the available ranges.

Munich's August climate historically produces highs between 23–27°C, with occasional spikes to 28–29°C during heat waves. The city's 30-year average for mid-August sits around 25°C. Extreme outliers—temperatures above 32°C—occur roughly once per decade in August, making very high ranges statistical long shots. The resolution mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures introduces a technical dependency; discrepancies between the two sources have occasionally affected settlement on similar European weather contracts, though Munich Airport's automated station typically reports consistent data.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting from mid-August 2026 onwards, particularly models from Deutscher Wetterdienst and ECMWF, which typically become reliable 10–14 days before the event. Any significant heat dome or Atlantic ridge positioning over Central Europe in early-to-mid August could shift probabilities materially. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 19 August, giving traders a narrow window to react to actual morning temperatures before final resolution.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Munich on August 19? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.