Highest temperature in Milan on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively pricing in no chance that Malpensa Airport’s recorded high falls into the YES range by the settlement cut-off. Because the market settles on the highest temperature reported for the airport station on Wunderground, the relevant number is the day’s *observed* peak in Celsius, not forecasts, city-centre readings, or feels-like values; the position is held and transferred on Polygon as conditional tokens backed by USDC.

For context, Milan in July is normally hot enough to keep daytime highs in the high-20s to low-30s Celsius, with typical July highs around 29°C and a non-trivial chance of rain rather than extreme heat[1]. That makes the market sensitive to whether the airport station logs an ordinary summer peak or a sharper warm spell, but it also means the shape of the temperature distribution is familiar to traders: July outcomes in Milan often cluster near the upper-20s, so a very low implied probability generally reflects the strike range, not a view that the weather will be cool. The user-facing reference point is the Wunderground history page for LIMC, which is the source Polymarket says it will use for settlement.

The main catalysts are the day’s synoptic weather set-up, any late-moving thunderstorm or cloud cover over Lombardy, and the timing of the airport station’s highest observation within the settlement window. For a market that can only resolve from the official history feed, traders will care more about the recorded maximum at Malpensa than about Milan headlines or city forecasts, because a short-lived afternoon spike can still determine the outcome. If the market remains open through the observation period, the on-chain price will be a direct expression of how users weigh the chance that the airport logs a temperature in the target band before 12:00 UTC.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Milan on July 26? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.