Highest temperature in Milan on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 July 2026, Milan's highest temperature will be recorded at Malpensa International Airport and settled against historical weather data from Wunderground. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature bands, reflecting the extreme distance of the event—nearly two years forward—and the inherent difficulty in pricing weather outcomes beyond seasonal norms. Polymarket has priced this contract at a floor, with USDC collateral locked across conditional tokens on Polygon, meaning traders are effectively declining to commit capital to any specific temperature range at present valuations.

Milan's July climate sits within a narrow historical band. Over the past two decades, peak temperatures on 21 July have ranged from 26°C to 32°C, with an average around 29°C. Extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 35°C—occur roughly once per decade in midsummer, though European heat waves have intensified in frequency since 2015. The 0% pricing reflects rational scepticism about forecasting precision at this temporal distance rather than any assertion that Milan will remain cool.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European climate forecasting models as July 2026 approaches, particularly from Meteo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which typically gain reliability within 10–14 days of the target date. Broader catalysts include Atlantic oscillation patterns and Mediterranean sea-surface temperatures, which influence summer heat waves across southern Europe. Until late spring 2026, meaningful price discovery is unlikely; the contract will likely remain illiquid until June, when meteorological data becomes actionable.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.