Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila faces its peak July heat today, with the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station set to record the day’s maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. The crowd currently prices a specific high-temperature outcome at 0% YES, implying traders expect the reading to fall outside the defined bracket. This contract settles on-chain via USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens track the binary outcome once Wunderground publishes the official daily maximum for RPLL.

Historical July data frames this zero probability as rational rather than dismissive. Daytime temperatures in Manila typically reach 31°C, with monthly averages hovering near 28.9°C to 31°C, while extreme spikes above 34°C are rare [2][4]. Although Metro Manila recently logged a record heat index of 45°C, actual air temperature extremes in July usually stay below 34°C, making a 34°C+ hit an outlier event that markets correctly discount [7].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from The Manila Times and Manila Standard for any tropical storm activity, as on average 1.6 days in July see tropical storm passage that suppresses peak heat [2][10]. Typhoon Inday (Bavi) is currently noted in early morning updates, which would likely cap temperatures well below the threshold required for a YES resolution [10]. The settlement depends entirely on the single highest reading recorded at RPLL before 12:00 UTC, with no secondary verification beyond the Wunderground daily history page.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Manila on July 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.