Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is whether Ninoy Aquino International Airport will record a highest temperature in the 37°C–38°C range on 1 July 2026, a threshold the crowd currently prices at 0% YES. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token on the Polygon network, settled in USDC, where the zero probability reflects a market consensus that July heat in Manila rarely exceeds the April–May peak. Historical data frames this reading: Metro Manila’s all-time record of 38.8°C was logged at NAIA on 27 April 2024[3], while the hottest month is May, not July, with average daily highs above 92°F during the hot season from 5 April to 22 May[2]. Recent July records show provisionally 36.5°C in Daet, smashing a 31-year-old July cap of 36.0°C, but NAIA’s own July peak remains lower than April’s extremes[6].

Traders should watch PAGASA’s daily weather bulletins and Wunderground’s real-time NAIA feed for any sudden heat spikes, as the resolution source is explicitly the highest temperature recorded for all times on 1 July at NAIA[1]. A key catalyst is the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration’s (PAGASA) seasonal forecast updates, which may signal anomalous heat if the dry season extends unusually late; a recent ABS-CBN report confirmed NAIA’s role in recording the national record, underscoring its data reliability[3]. Dependencies include cloud cover from the southwest monsoon and potential tropical disturbances, which typically suppress July peaks. With settlement ending 2026-07-01T12:00:00Z, on-chain mechanics ensure USDC payouts are automatic once Wunderground’s data is ingested, making timing of the feed critical for conditional token holders.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Manila on July 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.