Highest temperature in Manila on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila's highest temperature on 17 August 2026 will be measured at Ninoy Aquino International Airport and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, settling to whichever temperature range bracket contains that peak reading in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices this event at 0% YES on Polygon, meaning traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or minimal liquidity across the available temperature bands. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on the day itself, leaving no buffer for late-day heat spikes that often characterise tropical afternoons.

August sits firmly within Manila's southwest monsoon season, when afternoon highs typically range between 28–32°C, though extreme heat events have pushed readings above 35°C in recent years. The 2016 heatwave saw temperatures exceed 37°C across multiple days in May, whilst August 2022 recorded a high of 34.4°C at the airport station. Historical volatility suggests the crowd's current 0% pricing reflects either a consensus on a particular temperature bracket or sparse order book depth rather than genuine certainty about weather outcomes.

Traders should monitor the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) forecasts released in early August, which typically provide 10-day outlooks including heat advisories. El Niño or La Niña conditions, tracked by PAGASA and the Japan Meteorological Agency, influence seasonal temperature patterns significantly. Typhoon activity in the western Pacific during mid-August could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall, though such systems rarely affect Manila directly during the southwest monsoon phase.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.